ARAB SPRING ASSESSMENT  ( A.1)

In 2010, the Arab world began to experience what would be considered just one of a series of mass violent protests that would take place over the coming years.1 What initially began as a Tunisian man’s struggle to highlight corruption in the Tunisian bureaucracy, transformed into a broader movement aimed at overthrowing Arab leaders throughout the region. This wave of mobilization has since spread throughout much of the Arab world, toppling the leaders of three Arab states and challenging the authority of many more. Because of these circumstances, studies of Arab politics have considerably increased, as the Arab world has inadvertently positioned itself to be at the center of contemporary discussions of public mobilization. This has led to an emergence of numerous studies pertaining to the origins of contemporary Arab mobilization. Much of the existing research, however, focuses either exclusively on domestic factors or wholly on international factors, without considering the entirety of the variables in these countries. Therefore, the findings account for only a portion of the factors responsible for mobilization. The majority of literature on mobilization fails to account for the complex, multifaceted nature of contemporary Arab uprisings that stem from both internal and external dynamics. This study attempts to provide a broader illustration of the roots and implications of contemporary Arab mobilization by using a multilevel approach that synthesizes the foundations of paradigms derived from both the comparative and International relations fields of political science. It relies on a fusion of macro and micro level dynamics of mobilization, which as a combination, appears to have been overlooked in much of the existing literature. The theory borrows from neo-Marxist based approaches because it regards Arab mobilization as a response

to domestic circumstances brought about by macro-economic conditions that are externally driven.

A vast amount of the unrest currently taking place in the Arab world can be attributed to the structure of the global system, the economic role the region plays in the larger system, and the social and political circumstances that result from that economic role. Arab states are plagued with under performance as a result of colonialism, persistent wars, civil violence and heightened competition between superpowers. 2They are rentier-based economies that lack the capacity to

diversify and become globally competitive. Most Arab economies are largely based on the export

of raw materials and the location of strategic trade routes, such as the Suez Canal and the Straight of Hormuz, make the Middle East and North Africa of particular importance to the global economy. States that have little to export, however, are often interest to global powers for their geo-strategic significance. Because of this, much of the Arab world is caught within the web of a global economic hierarchy that sustains the political and social apparatus of Arab states. Arab leaders have little incentive to respond to domestic demands because of the security that oil rents provide to them. International reliance on oil prevents and largely dissuades any foreign interference that could potentially hamper the production and delivery of the valuable commodity. Western political and economic interests in the region have led to the peripheral role that Arab states have taken globally; the prevalence of authoritarian regimes in the Arab world can therefore be partially attributed to Western interests in the region and the West’s desire to safeguard its political and economic interests.

The Arab world is plagued with patrimonial autocracies. For this reason there is a great deal of dysfunction in what little institutional apparatus that does exist within Arab states.

Arab leaders maintain absolute control by allowing only friends and family within the decision- making apparatus. Nepotism and cronyism prevent qualified individuals from gaining access to political power and therefore prevent meaningful change. The tribal characteristics of Arab culture can be found throughout most aspects of the Arab state. Because of the security that Arab leaders are afforded through oil rents, Arab nations largely remain in a patrimonial state. Arab leaders are known to use state resources to buy loyalty and then use oppression as a tool to preserve the corrupt patron-client centered relationship that the state is structured around. Oil rents and profits from state resources are used as a tool for buying regime support rather than being utilized for building much-needed state infrastructure. This often leads to a hierarchal social structure consisting of a small regime-affiliated upper class, and a large lower class with limited upward mobility.

Arab states are unable to meet the social, political and economic needs of their populations because of the misallocation of state funds. State funds are often used for the personal pleasure of those affiliated with the regime rather than the needs of society. Leaders therefore respond by oppressing the population. This tactic appears to be designed to instill fear and prevent activism among citizens. The Arab world’s internal and external problems, as a result of the social, political and economic factors mentioned earlier, are what largely contribute to its role in the global system. Awareness, spurred along by the use of social media among the Arab people, appears to be leading to anti-systemic mass mobilization. This mobilization is geared largely towards overthrowing the dictatorial leaders that maintain the Arab world’s role in the global system. The anti-imperialist rhetoric that was once largely associated with the anti- imperialist revolutions in Algeria and Iran, is now common throughout much of the Arab world.

It is now apparent that the Western world selects which Arab states are friend and which are foe, purely on short-term political and economic interests. The United States and much of the Western world largely ignore human rights violations in Saudi Arabia and other conservative Arab regimes because of the interests of elites in both the Eastern and Western worlds. The policies pursued as a result of these interests therefore help maintain oppression.

A vast amount of the literature on the roots of this phenomenon appears to be focused on the elements of repression and economic instability, rather than deeper psychological dynamics as potential triggers for mobilization. This is perhaps because scholars have faced difficulty in terms of connecting the authoritarian nature of a given regime with the behavior of its populace. While the political authority’s conduct has indeed played a significant role in contemporary case studies of Arab mobilization, existing studies have failed to illustrate how anger towards the regime is converted on a psychological level to mobilization.

Most theories of this phenomenon are focused on the internal features of the state, such as the ideology and configuration of the regime, as the central trigger for uprising. While this may be appropriate for micro level studies of the Arab Spring, it omits the external elements that framed the current structure of the Middle East. Although some scholars have tried to attribute the uprising to religious or cultural features, there is little evidence to indicate that values (religious or cultural) are responsible for the oppressive approach that Arab leaders have adopted. Authoritarianism in the Arab world stems from a series of issues that must be studied on multiple levels. To construct a comprehensive explanation of the uprisings in the Arab world, scholars must focus on building a link between the internal and external factors that have inspired mass anti-systemic mobilization in the region.

Prior to the widespread emergence of text messaging and social media, scholars were largely unable to build theoretical bridges that could properly illustrate mass reaction to a given regime. Today, however, there is a vast amount of qualitative and quantitative data on social media use in the Arab world that enables us to study how the global political atmosphere impacts societal behavior. While it is evident that domestic institutional dynamics have greatly contributed to the ongoing conflict in the region, much of the literature appears to overlook the anti-imperialist nature of the ongoing uprisings by largely centering on the authoritarian structure of the regimes themselves. For the Arab people, the state is often perceived as an extension of Western control and a tool for maintaining the status quo. Therefore, the uprisings, while centered on overthrowing domestic dictators, are largely anti-imperialist and anti-systemic in nature.

Although there has been a significant increase in literature pertaining to Arab politics, much of it has lacked a thorough conceptual and theoretical account of contemporary Arab mobilization. Most of the existing studies focus on constructing narratives rather than providing an accurate background of Arab discontent that could be used to build a theoretical framework for mobilization. In addition, much of the literature appears to use the term revolution to describe events that lack the transformative characteristics of genuine revolutions. Much of these conceptual flaws can be attributed to discussing mass political behavior outside of a proper framework. In order to construct a proper theoretical explanation for what is taking place in the Arab world, it is critical to begin by discussing mobilization within a context of political change.

The first chapter of this dissertation familiarizes the reader with existing theories of public mobilization by discussing concepts, theories and methods employed in the broader literature on social mobilization. It will begin by defining public mobilization and social change

and a brief comparison of mass political protests and revolutions to further distinguish the dynamics that differentiate them. This chapter will also discuss the leading theories of public mobilization and the limitations they have when attempting to explain mobilization from both a comparative and International Relations perspective. It will include a discussion on the foundations of classical works on anti-systemic mobilization by reviewing the central components of Marx’s literature on revolution. The chapter will then move on to discuss the emergence of some of the more contemporary theories of anti-systemic mobilization that are relevant to studies of the Arab uprisings. These include World Systems Theory and Frustration- Aggression/Relative Deprivation. The remainder of chapter one will consist of a brief outline of the methodological approach used for this study. It will discuss the challenges of studying developing nations and why a qualitative approach is generally employed for studies of the Arab world.

Chapter two explains the internal foundations of Arab mobilization by discussing domestic historical factors that have enabled the global system to keep the Arab world in a dependent role. This chapter will explain the sudden rise of public mobilization by discussing the social, political and economic complications brought about by this dependent relationship. It will also discuss how internal factors such as the lack of institutions, lack of state services, and the authoritarian nature of the political authority foster internal opposition, result in state sponsored oppression. Additionally, it will investigate the role of social media in the mobilization process and how heightened social interaction, as a result of new forms of communication, is providing Arabs with an outlet for voicing their grievances with the state. It is also a tool that enables them to rapidly organize anti-systemic anti-imperialist movements.

Chapter three focuses on external dynamics, specifically how imperialist/ neo-colonialist policies aid in maintaining the Arab world’s dependent role in the global system. This chapter illustrates the impact that economic dependency, resulting from global imperialist/neo-colonialist policies, has on development in the Arab world. This chapter largely focuses on the exploitative nature of global institutions such as the United Nations and World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund and how these institutions maintain the neoliberal agenda that American imperialism is founded upon.

Chapter four contains an explanation of the impact that the uprisings are having in these states by examining the social, political and economic consequences of the Arab Spring. This chapter is largely centered on discussing the domestic changes that have taken place as result of what is happening in these states and what these changes can lead to in terms of political freedom, safety and wellbeing of the citizens. It will also discuss the role that Islamist groups have on mobilizing regime opposition, why they have such a strong presence, and how their rise to power has largely impeded true revolutionary change. The chapter will also examine the political-structural changes that have emerged as a result of these uprisings and how they have altered the state and institutions. Chapter four will also examine the Arab uprisings from a regional perspective by discussing what can be interpreted as the advent of an unconventional proxy style war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It also examines how contemporary mobilization has brought attention to the ideological conflict that exists in the Middle East and how it has altered the political dynamics of the wider region by largely highlighting elements of the Sunni- Shi’a divide. The chapter will explain what the Arab uprisings mean for the region and why Arab leaders will have to become more responsive to the needs of the populace if they intend to stay in power. It will include a discussion about Islamists and how they will shape the political

atmosphere if they remain in power. The chapter will conclude with what the rise of Islamist groups will mean for minorities that continue to live in the region.

Chapter four will conclude with an explanation of the challenges of managing instability and why the United States will have to reevaluate its approach to the region. It will discuss the political ramifications of supporting Arab autocracies and the potential costs of a more autonomous Middle East. Also, will also touch over the economic and political implications of mass migration as a result of instability, particulary in regards to Syria and the nations that are receiving them. It will also touch on the role of China, its shift towards being the largest importer of oil, and what this will mean for future relations with China. It will also discuss the role of Russia and its growing influence on this region. ( TO BE CONTINUED)